The effectiveness of Crime Nabi, a crime prediction system, was verified with the Belo Horizonte Municipal Police in the state of Minas, Brazil. As a result, the number of copper wire thefts in the entire city during the two-month experiment period decreased by 69% compared to the two months prior to the experiment, confirming the effectiveness of the system. Singular Perturbations, Inc. and the City of Belo Horizonte signed an extension of the demonstration for continued business use in 2023.
◆Crime Nabi Verification of Crime Prediction System
◆Period: August 1, 2022 – September 30, 2022
◆Target: Belo Horizonte Municipal Police Department and Integrated Operation Center in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Federative Republic of Brazil
We have developed Crime Nabi, a crime forecasting system based on a crime forecasting algorithm that includes a highly accurate and fast proprietary method. Based on the prediction results, Crime Nabi MOBILE/WEB, an operational support service that supports operational planning, monitoring, and management, has been released and provided to municipalities, government agencies, and security companies.
The effectiveness of the system was verified together with the City of Belo Horizonte (hereinafter referred to as “BH City”) in the state of Minas, Federative Republic of Brazil, and the municipal police force. cable theft has been increasing rapidly in BH City in recent years, and this has become a social problem that affects traffic signal failures and the power supply to some factories and hospitals. For this reason, we targeted cable theft in this verification. With the full cooperation of the BH City and Municipal Police Corps, we verified the effectiveness of the patrol operations support service provided by our system, Crime Nabi, and demonstrated that it was effective.
◆Verification Results
The effectiveness of Crime Nabi, a crime forecasting system, was verified by the City of Belo Horizonte Police Department in the Brazilian state of Minas, Brazil, by the results of a two-month Crime Nabi test. The effectiveness of the system was confirmed.
During the demonstration period, the GPS information of the patrols was recorded through a mobile application, and this information was used to conduct a more precise verification of the effectiveness of the patrols. The following is an example of the crime prevention effect of patrols using crime prediction in a certain area. On the left is a crime map of the exact same area before Crime Nabi and on the right is a crime map of the exact same area while Crime Nabi is in use. The green is the accumulation of crime locations, and the blue is the GPS information of the patrols. Crime was reduced during the PoC period compared to before the PoC period, especially in the area patrolled by Crime Nabi.
Figure 1: Comparison of crime occurrence before and during the use of Crime Nabi (to avoid identifying detailed locations, the figure shown has been reduced to a lower resolution of the area, but it is still possible to see the actual details).
A citywide comparison of Crime Nabi use and non-use areas showed that Crime Nabi was twice as effective in deterring crime in Crime Nabi use areas compared to non-use areas, confirming the effectiveness of the system. Specifically, the number of crimes that occurred in Crime Nabi enabled areas during the demonstration period decreased to 21% of those that occurred before the demonstration period, while the number of crimes that occurred in non-use areas remained at 44%.
Figure 2: The number of thefts in areas where Crime Nabi was used was reduced to 21% of the pre-demonstration level, almost twice as effective as the 44% in areas where Crime Nabi was not used.
This achievement was highly acclaimed at a ceremony held in June 2023 in the city of BH.
◆Comments from Belo Horizonte City Director
“This achievement can be considered a paradigm shift. Until now, crime control has been an analog approach, where each citizen has to fight his or her own battle. We feel that the use of technology to accurately predict crime has had a huge impact.”
Press release from the City of Belo
Details of the results were also presented to the public at the 17th Annual Meeting of the Brazilian Public Safety Forum, held in Belém, Pará, Brazil, in collaboration with the City of BH. The forum was attended by public safety officials from all Brazilian states and was well received, especially by police officials.
◆Future
Singular Perturbations and the City of BH have signed an extension of the demonstration experiment for operational use in FY2023. Based on the results of the Crime Nabi crime prediction system, we will begin a new demonstration experiment for use in camera surveillance operations in FY2023.
Figure 3: Ceremony with the City of BH and the Municipal Police Department
Figure 4: Discussion on business utilization